We like to think that our politics are complex and heavily influenced by events and arguments. This feels especially true given the avalanche of incidents, crises, scandals and tweets that we’ve struggled to process since January 20, 2017.
But there is nothing complex about politics under Trump.
We Americans made up our minds about Trump three years ago. Events and statements that would have crippled or even ended any other administration—Manafort, Flynn, Mueller, Stormy Daniels, Charlottesville, Helsinki, caged children and separated families, Michael Cohen, Khashoggi, the lies used to explain Soleimani’s assassination, the racist travel band, the end of press briefings and news conferences, the charges of sexual assault, and impeachment, to name just a small fraction—have had ZERO impact on Trump’s poll numbers.
Those numbers have barely moved in three years, and they are not going to move over the next ten months. No matter what happens.
Trump approval ratings over the past three years as tracked by 538.com
The Democrats had to impeach Trump, and Adam Schiff and the other impeachment managers did an absolutely brilliant job of making the case against him. The House Democrats need to continue to hold hearings, because those hearings and great reporting are the only forces for accountability left in Trumpworld.
If you believe that any argument, debate, incident, shock or statement that happens between now and November will change Trump’s reelection chances, you’re not going to use your time between now and the election wisely and you will increase the likelihood of Trump being elected.
Trump’s sizeable base has shown that they are perfectly willing to abandon the Constitution, the concept of fair elections, a free press, basic human decency, and their own national security in order to keep Trump in power. Nothing will convince them otherwise to any significant degree. Nothing.
And yet so many in the “resistance” continue to act, in denial of 1,095 days of constant evidence to the contrary, that one more document, one more scandal, one more tape, or one more unassailable argument will
turn the tide.
It’s hard to leave reality-based politics behind. It will excruciating to watch Trump take his victory lap after the Senate acquits him. But there is a empowering clarity underneath all these poll numbers, and if the resistance embraces it we will be focused and effective and we will removed Trump. If we continue to overthink the 2020 election, Trump will win.
The politics of 2020 could not be simpler. Only two things matter.
First, the majority of Americans have been opposed to Trump since day one.
Second, the only 2020 results that will matter will be those Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona, and Florida.
If the Democrats turn out their vote in those eight states, Trump will be removed. If they don’t, he’ll be elected.
Start NOW to campaign and donate in ways that increase Democratic turnout in those critical states.
We have 282 days left.